November 10, 2008

Coin Flip

Nate Silver of 538.com has the full mathematical breakdown of the Minnesota recount between Franken and Coleman. Very interesting stuff. It is actually a little worse for Franken than I thought, but still about a 50/50 chance for him to win. What surprised me the most was just how critical were the recent adjustments to the margin that fixed some errors and pulled the margin of victory for Coleman from about 700 to 221 votes. Without that change, Franken would have nearly an impossible hill to climb unless you make some very optimistic assumptions about the undervotes and overvotes.

What worries me is a number of the ballots supposedly "in play" are ballots in which a vote was recorded for president but not for Senate. I can imagine in that race that quite a few people decided not to vote for any of the three candidates, which is a reason the "protest" independent candidate got so many votes. The fewer actual undervotes there are, the worse Franken's chances.

Posted by Observer at November 10, 2008 08:55 AM
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