Carpe Datum

Forked Media

BuzzFlash pointed me to this interesting column about war politics by Michael Wolff. Wolff thinks there are two ways for the current war problems (i.e. lying about WMD, not planning for the "peace from hell" as Molly Ivins put it, etc.) to play themselves out:

1) This postwar (or post-postwar) querulousness is just a blip for the president, and, as so often before, the Bush political and communications experts will make the necessary adjustments (or do the requisite bullying) and, with relative media quiescence, charge on.

2) The war and its aftermathówhich is unfolding pretty much exactly as the antiwar forces said it wouldóhave created a situation of great vulnerability for the president, which the media, goaded by the Democrats, will poke and prod with mounting pleasure. The president and his men will become more and more defensive and, as the bullying becomes more brazen, prone to greater and greater mistakes. Hence the stage is set for political calamity.

But which is it?

Wolff seems to think it will depend in part on what happens over in England, where they have a real press with some backbone that is putting the hard questions to Blair's government. Our own so-called liberal media is way behind the Brits. But it could also depend on unforeseen events. I think it will depend on if we capture Osama or Saddam or possibly if we experience any major attack on our soil. If none of those three things happen, I have a hard time seeing how Bush's situation on Iraq and the war on terror can improve (not that a major attack on us would improve the war on terror, but it would make a disastrous Bush re-election more likely as everyone falls into line like after 9/11).

If we capture Osama or Saddam, that will help Bush look a lot better politically. It won't make his overall foreign policy any smarter, and it won't improve the lots of the Iraqis. It also doesn't make Bush suddenly an honest president or fix any of the massive budget problems he's bringing on, but to most Moron-Americans, that doesn't enter into the equation.

Posted by Observer at August 17, 2003 09:29 AM